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The exchange rate of hryvnia was promised to increase
07 October 2014
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Experts believe that there are no fundamental grounds for the devaluation of hryvnia. According to them, the national currency has the potential to strengthen up to 12 UAH /USD.

Government debt in UAH equivalent increased by 40.64% since the beginning of the year.

National Bank's interventions in support of hryvnia, carried out last week on Tuesday and Friday, have not yet been able to reverse the market: trading in the interbank market on Monday opened with another decrease in the value of national currency.

Quotations at the beginning of the day were 12.60-12.90 UAH/USD1 in comparison with 12.55-12.70 UAH/USD1 at the time of closing on Friday. By the closing of trading, the price levels reached a maximum of 12.92/13.20.

At the same time, experts unanimously state that there are no reasons for the further growth of hryvnia.

Economists linked the increase in the dollar exchange rate in recent weeks with political uncertainty. Hryvnia started falling after Parliament's refusal to vote for the budget sequestration and the threat of resignation of the Prime Minister of Ukraine. But even after a positive decision on the state budget, the market did not respond with national currency strengthening.

Moreover, according to FUIB's chairman of the Board, Serhiy Chernenko, August has always been more passive from the standpoint of foreign currency sales due to the traditional decrease in business activity. "Now, the general economic situation connected with the enterprises in the east, which were the fairly large dollar suppliers and sellers, has also superimposed on this. All of this led to the tension that exists in the market. However, nothing has fundamentally changed with respect to the previous month", assures the banker.

The interbank market has seriously narrowed, and any change in the demand can boost the exchange rate. If the average daily volumes in the interbank market in August 2013 were more than $ 1 billion, now this figure is 3 times smaller — the trading volumes in the market stay around $ 300 million.

In such a market, any major player, whether it is a Russian business or banks with Russian capital, can easily "drop" hryvnia. However, according to the bankers, this scenario is unlikely for now. Bankers still remember how the previous NBU direction barred from the interbank for any major transaction above the market. Now, under the threat of even more severe sanctions, the Russian capital will not take such risks. Therefore, the accusations of deliberate swaying of the exchange rate were not yet substantiated, as the economists say.

"The present situation is a gentle flare of panic and uncertainty that arose among the population", said Serhiy Chernenko. It is the cash demand of the population that leads to the intensification of the banks in the foreign exchange market. Failure to understand how the war with Russia will end, as well as repurchase of foreign currency from the market led to the increase in demand for the latter.

At the same time, experts assure that the NBU controls the situation. The National Bank has established a clear framework, violation of which leads to interventions. The first two times the Central Bank came into the foreign exchange market have not yet led to a decrease in the dollar exchange rate, however the rate of fall of hryvnia has slowed down.

"We even have the potential for revaluation. NBU interventions should play a stabilizing role. Therefore, I believe that the average annual exchange rate of 12-12.2 UAH/USD is very realistic," summarizes Serhiy Chernenko.

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