Strengthening of Hryvnia (UAH) is impossible until the situation in the east of Ukraine stabilizes because these risks, one way or the other, will have an impact on the currency market, according to expert respondents of UNIAN.
Head of the Board of the “First Ukrainian International Bank” Sergey Chernenko believes that the current state of the currency market is predetermined not only by macroeconomic indicators, but also by the events in the east of the country. “The impact of these events on the industry is fairly strong. If you imagine that the situation will stabilize in the short term, the rate should strengthen. The level depends on macroeconomic policy. I think that the rate of 11 UAH/USD - is quite realistic”, - he said. The banker stressed that the issue is beyond the framework of the National Bank’s authority, and disagreed with the statement that devaluation is caused by the policy of former head of the National Bank of Ukraine, Stepan Kubiv. “The government and leadership of the National Bank have become prisoners of the situation. Everything that we have now is its consequences. There are really very few depreciation tools” - added Chernenko.
As UNIAN has reported earlier, since the beginning of the year hryvnia depreciated by almost 50% according to the official rate of the National Bank, up to 11.8948 UAH/USD as of today, June 26.
Devaluation of Hryvnia (UAH) leads to an increase in the burden on the currency borrowers who received loans at the rate of from 5 to 8 UAH/USD and are forced to buy the currency for their repayment at the higher rate.
At the same time, depositors of troubled banks incur losses, getting a currency deposit indemnity through Guarantee Fund in the UAH equivalent at the exchange rate as of the bank was declared insolvent, instead of at the current rate.
According to forecasts of the Ukrainian government, on which the state budget for the current year is based, the average annual exchange rate of Hryvnia (UAH) with respect to dollar is expected to be 10.5 UAH/USD.
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